The Last Of The Millenniums

Just because it always has been, doesn't mean it always will be

Archive for the day “November 7, 2016”

Electoral College Watch – No More Toss Ups – Madame President Hillary Rodham Clinton

1hjillary

THIS is the President I waited 8 years for……..

Go to 1:14:00

Right or wrong, I see a quiet but very large surge in Latinos and women. Especially younger women.
I think that Clinton will carry every demographic except for white men and even that will be close.

I think Hillary will win FL-29 and by a comfortable 3-5% margin.

Without FL-29, Trump has no path to winning.

So by 9 PM PDT, I predict that the news agencies will call the election for the first women President – Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Trump loses NH-4, PA-20, NC-15, MI-16, AZ-11, OH-18.

An electoral blow out and a popular vote win by Hillary of 5%+.

I don’t want Trump to concede. I want his refusal to be the final insult of the Republican party to our democracy.

Hillary Clinton
NV-6, MN-10,
WA-12, OR-7, CA-55, HI-4, VT-3, HN-4, MA-11, RI-4, CT-7, NJ-14, DE-3, MD-10, DC-3, NY-29, VA-13, PA-20, , WI-10, IL-20, NM-5, CO-9, NC-15, MI-16, AZ-11, OH-18, FL-29 = 348

Donald Trump
MT-3, ID-4, WY-3, ND-3, SD-3, NE-4, KS-6, OK-7, AR-10, LA-8, MS-6, AL-9, TN-11, WV-5, SC-9, GA-16, KY-8, ME-3, AK-3, TX-38, UT-6, MO-10, IA-6, IN-11 = 192

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Electoral College Watch – Republican FBI Director – “My bad”.

1oops

James Comey

The FBI Director was confirmed by the Senate in 2013 for a 10 year term.
Now the President can fire him.
But Obama can’t without screwing with his legacy.
Hillary can’t because of the so called (really is there anything there there?) on going (cough) ‘investigations’.
So – Hillary needs to find a street brawler Attorney General (the boss of the FBI) and have them ride James Comey until he is in tears and resigns.

Michigan the new “Oh it could cost Hillary the election”.

Let’s come back to the real World.
Right now – in general – most maps show Clinton with a minimum of 272.
Michigan has 16 electoral votes.
So that would give Clinton 256.

For Trump to win, he needs MI-16, FL-29, NC-15, OH-18 AND NV-6 or AZ-11.
He is not going to win 5 or those 6 States.

In fact there is a ‘silent vote’ out there.
But it’s not ‘silent’ Trump supporters.

It’s women and Latinos.
HUGE in FL-29 (up to 28% of Repubs could have voted for Hillary)
NV-6 – Dems early vote up 65,000.
AZ-11 – see nevada.
Real Clear Politics
Daily Average –
Thur – 2.2
Fri – 2.6
Sat – 1.8
Sun – 2.0
Mon – 2.2
RCP Electoral No Toss Ups
4 straight days holding at
Clinton – 297
Trump – 241
——————-

Predict Wise
Fri –
Clinton 84%
Sat –
Clinton 86%
Sun –
Clinton 87%
Mon –
Clinton 89%
——————

Wow….
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball 2016 Electoral College
STILL is running the headline ‘Is Clinton Slipping’? from Nov. 3rd.
No longer a serious predictor
——————

AP still Nov 5th
Clinton 274
Trump 190
Toss Ups 74
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Princeton Election Consortium
Clinton 313
Trump 225
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Five Thirty Eight
Clinton 292
Trump 245.3
McMullin .7
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CNN The Place Not To Watch On Election Night
Clinton 268
Trump 204
—————–

Cook Political Report
Clinton 278
Trump 214
Toss Ups 46
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Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report
Clinton 323
Trump 191
Toss Ups 24
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