The Last Of The Millenniums

Just because it always has been, doesn't mean it always will be

Electoral College Watch – Toss Ups?

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RCP – Clinton 273 Trump – 265
Cook Political – Clinton 278 Trump – 214 Toss up 46
Crystal Ball – Clinton 293 Trump – 214 Toss up 31
Predict Wise – Clinton 83% Trump – 17%

Real Clear Politics this morning has Clinton down to 226 Electoral College votes.
3 days ago she was over 270
Even their ‘No Toss Up’ map shows Clinton at 273 but they ‘give’ Trump FL-29, NC-13, NV-6 & AZ-11.

So why?

Well RCP has NC-15, VA-13 & PA-20 as ‘toss up’.
This puts her at 274.

They also show OH-18 & IA-6 as ‘toss ups.’
This puts him at 204.

OH-18 and IA-6 are solid Trump States.
They are not ‘toss ups’.

Ditto for Clinton – PA-20, VA-13 are solidly hers.

Trump has to, HAS TO, HAS TO win FL-29.
Trump has to, HAS TO, HAS TO win NC-15.
Trump has to, HAS TO, HAS TO win AZ-11.
Trump HAS TO steal NC-15 from Hillary AND win AZ-11 AND FL-29.
That would put him at 259. 11 short. NH-4, IA-6 and ME2-1 would give him his 11 – BUT he STILL HAS TO win FL-29, AZ-11 and take NC-13 from Hillary.

Without FL-29, it doesn’t matter what other States he wins.

But he is basicly by himself on the campaign trail.

Team Clinton – Hillary, Bill, Chelsea, Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, Joe Biden – will hit Fl-29, NC-15, NH-4, AZ-11, NV-6 and CO-9.

 

Living in FL-29 & NC-13 and campagining hard in NH-4, AZ-11, NV-6 and CO-9.

 

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4 thoughts on “Electoral College Watch – Toss Ups?

  1. Should I get nervous now ? What happened ?

  2. 538 has it 65/35 right now and he is conservative, no pun intended. Yet, he admits these do not measure the on-the-ground efforts, so voter turnout is critical. Dems got to vote, as this is not the lesser of two evils, as Trump is an apocalyptically bad candidate who would impact our nation and planet for the next fifty years in a negative way.

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