Blog Running – ‘If John Boehner Knows What’s Good For Him, He’ll Shut Down the Government’
Speaker Boehner is the actual ‘dog; in the ‘tail wagging the dog’.
‘What the hell is John Boehner thinking? I don’t mean that strictly in a rhetorical sense, though it’s hard not to slap your head when you see the most powerful Republican in the country lurching from one cockamamie strategy to another’.
‘The conventional wisdom is that Boehner cares most about avoiding a government shutdown, since he knows how damaging it would be to the Republican Party, which would take the overwhelming share of the blame’.
‘But while it’s certainly the case that Boehner thinks a shutdown would be terrible for the party, and that he’d prefer to avoid one, it’s not at all clear it’s in his interest to do so’.
‘Because there are two things Boehner presumably cares about more than avoiding a shutdown’:
‘not being ousted as Speaker’,
‘and raising the debt ceiling by mid-to-late October so as to avoid a debt default’.
‘The latter would be far more damaging to the economy than a shutdown, and therefore more devastating to the Republican brand’
‘Unfortunately for Boehner, the only plausible way to both keep his job and avoid a debt default is … to shut down the government when the fiscal year ends next week’.
‘Tea Party conservatives in the House, following the lead the distinguished non-filibusterer from Texas, are all keyed up for a confrontation with Obama in which they refuse to fund the government unless they can simultaneously defund (or rather, “defund”) Obmacare’.
‘The Democratic Senate and the president obviously aren’t going along with this. So the only way to avoid a shutdown is for Boehner to walk it back, which conservatives will regard as a humiliating retreat’.
‘Suppose Boehner surrenders in this way and avoids a shutdown’.
‘The only way he’s likely to keep his job in the face of the inevitable conservative backlash is to promise a for-real-this-time confrontation a few weeks later, in which the House insists on a year-long delay for the individual mandate, the linchpin of Obamcare, in exchange for raising the debt ceiling’.
‘Problem is, Obama has absolutely refused to negotiate over the debt limit in any way’.
‘He’s been remarkably consistent on this point, going so far as to call Boehner on Friday night for no other reason than to inform him he still wasn’t negotiating’.
‘ (It was about as close as you get as president to calling up a high office-holder and telling him to go f*** himself. I admired it greatly.)’
‘Which means one of two things is probably going to happen if we avoid a shutdown’:
‘Either John Boehner is going to turn around and appease irate conservatives by insisting on delaying Obamacare in exchange for raising the debt limit, thereby sending the government into default (since Obama isn’t negotiating)’.
‘Or he’s going to back down and allow the debt ceiling to be raised with a minority of House Republicans and a majority of House Democrats, thereby further infuriating conservatives and almost certainly costing himself his job’.
‘(Recall that conservatives got more than halfway to the number of defections they needed to oust Boehner back in January, after he’d merely allowed a vote on a small tax increase when a much bigger one was kicking in automatically.)’
‘That is, either Boehner gets it or the global economy gets it, both of which Boehner would like to avoid even more than he’d like to avoid a shutdown’.
From : http://www.newrepublic.com/article/114857/john-boehner-needs-government-shutdown-avoid-debt-default