Blog Running – ‘2014 Senate Prognostication’
Great, great, GREAT breakdown of the 2014 Senate races over at Booman Tribune :
‘With some initial polling showing Arkansas incumbent Senator Mark Pryor comfortably ahead in his reelection race, I guess it is time to take a very preliminary look at the 2014 Senate outlook’.
‘It’s a bad year for the Democrats both because they have to defend more seats and because they are defending several in red states while having two opportunities (New Jersey and Maine) to pick up seats in blue states’.
‘Currently, there are 52 Democrats plus two independents (Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine) who caucus with the Democrats, and there are 46 Republicans’.
‘Here’s how I call them, with party control changes bolded’:
‘LEAN DEM: Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, (boldNew Jersey), North Carolina’
‘LEAN GOP: Maine, Nebraska, South Carolina, South Carolina (Class III), (boldSouth Dakota, West Virginia)’
‘TOSS-UP: Kentucky, Georgia, Montana’
‘What does this mean? It means that the Democrats will pick up one seat (New Jersey) and lose two seats (South Dakota and West Virginia), with Kentucky, Georgia, and Montana too close to call’.
‘We should go into election night with a 55-45 advantage (having picked up the New Jersey seat)’.
‘Quite likely, we will end the night with a 53-47 advantage, having retained New Jersey but lost South Dakota and West Virginia’.
‘If the GOP adds Montana, we will be down to 52-48’.
‘If we save Montana and win either (but not both) Kentucky and Georgia, we will be where we are now (54-46)’.
‘If we hold Montana and win both Kentucky and Georgia then we’ll be where we started (55-45)’.
‘To have a great night, we need to figure out a way to steal a seat in Maine, Nebraska, South Carolina (two available) or Nebraska’.
‘In any case, somewhere between 52-48 and 55-45 is what I expect, although things could turn either way to make the margins bigger’.
From : http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2013/8/5/163419/0808