The Last Of The Millenniums

Just because it always has been, doesn't mean it always will be

The Daily 2012 – Calling the election -‘Romney Campaign Brushes Off “538” Projections’ Or why Colorado, Virginia and Nevada AREN’T really ‘battleground’ States’

Nate Silver – “Nobody is, or ought to be, ‘calling’ the election,” Silver said. “We do have Obama favored, since he’s ahead in the polling averages in states that would suffice for him to win the Electoral College… But the odds are, also, that Nov. 6 will be a long night.”
From : http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/romney-campaign-brushes-off-538-projections

I didn’t get that memo.

But look for Romney to blame Obama for the ‘lack of response’ to Sandy.

Well I have jury duty. Here in Spokane County, you go in for the first day and they’ll select who will and won’t be needed. So on a day to day basis for the week, you may or may not serve.
Repeat for the second week.

So don’t know if or even how many posts I will be getting in. More focused on getting people to vote.

Don’t even bother with the National polls. In fact, when some network news starts ‘explaining’ a National poll, think about this – we don’t elect our President by popular vote.

We elect them by the Electoral College.

And National polls are also affected by demographics methodology and ‘crashing’ – each candidate getting 10%, 15% or more percentage wins in certain States thus skewing the rest of the States in a National poll.

On the popular vote – I still think Romney will win. Very close.

But on calling the race, President Obama wins 294 to Romney’s 244.

And the times at which some races are called will vary. With so much competition, the networks will want to be the first but also not want to blow a call too.

The polls close at 8PM (E) on the East coast.

By 9PM (E):
States called for Obama :
VT – 3
NH – 4
MA – 11
RI – 4
CT – 7
NJ – 14
DE – 3
MD – 10
DC – 3
NY – 29

States called for Romney :
SC – 9
GA – 16
NC – 15
WV – 5
________________
At 9 PM (E)
Obama – 88
Romney – 45
________________
The polls close at 9PM (E) in the Central States.
By 10PM (E):
States States caleed for Obama :
ME – 4
OH – 18
PA – 20
IL – 20
MI – 16
MN – 10
WI – 10

States called for Romney :
AL – 9
AR – 6
FL – 29
IN – 11
KY – 8
LA – 8
MS – 6
MO – 10
OK – 7
TN – 11
____________________
At 10PM (E)
Obama – 186
Romney – 150
_____________________
The polls close at 10 PM(E) in the Mountain States.
By 11PM(E) :
States called for Obama :
IA – 6

States called for Romney
KS – 6
MT – 3
NE – 5
ND – 3
SD – 3
TX – 38
UT – 6
WY – 3
________________
At 11 PM (E)
Obama – 192
Romney – 217
_________________

**(Note) – I REALLY, REALLY (please, please, please) URGE EVERYONE to switch to FOX (cough) ‘news. The celebration will be fantastic.

MITT ROMNEY IS AHEAD.

WOW!!!! Mitt’s going to beat Obama!!!

WE DID IT!!!! WE DID IT!!!

It will be a wonderful hour to watch.

Well until that small thing called ‘The West Coast’ comes creeping in.

CA, OR, WA and even though polls in HI won’t close for many hours yet, those 4 States Electoral Vote comes to – 78.

78 + 192 = 270.

I figure it will be around 11:30 when someone at FOX realaizes that and slowly, ever so slowly the celebration will wind down.

The polls close at 11:00(E) on the West Coast.
by 12:00AM Midnight (E)
States called for Obama
CA – 55
HI – 4
OR – 7
WA – 12
NM – 5

States called for Romney
ID – 4
AK – 3
AZ – 11

By Midnight (E), 9PM here on the West Coast

Obama – 275
Romney – 235

CO – 9
NV – 6
VA – 13
Will be too close to call until the next day.

My call :
Co – Romney
NV – Obama
VA – Obama

 

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2 thoughts on “The Daily 2012 – Calling the election -‘Romney Campaign Brushes Off “538” Projections’ Or why Colorado, Virginia and Nevada AREN’T really ‘battleground’ States’

  1. Good look on your jury duty. I will do my own jury duty at the polls on the 6th.

    • 6 1/2 hours of sitting before being seated on a jury. On the upside, we get a whole $10.00 a day for this. Half of which goes to buying lunch since the County doesn’t supply it.
      Good luck to all of us on the 6th!

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